PS. 打算旁聽本課程的同學，請開學第一堂課後mail給教學助理拿"授權碼"
教學助理: 徐麒祐. r11322012@ntu.edu.tw

2/22: 課程介紹:
亞太既定安全架構：結盟與權力平衡的雙邊主義架構,
冷戰結束後亞太安全架構的衝擊與轉變
(1) 蘇聯角色的消逝代表何意義？：已成美中二元架構？
(2) 中共軍事現代化的影響（中俄軍事交流）
(3) 大規模武器的擴散與軍備競賽：
(a) 北韓核武與飛彈擴散
(b) 日本軍事角色的日益提昇：正常國家化
(c) 臺海軍力平衡的改變

3/1：亞太軍力平衡及軍備競賽
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) : The Military Balance 2023 Chapter 6: “Asia” (London: The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 2020) 亞太部分, 台大圖館有電子書
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/04597222.2023.2162718

3/8：美國與亞太安全 （著重於川普到拜登時期；包括美國的印太政策、戰略，對各國的政策及相互關係）
Congressional Research Service report, U.S. Ground Forces in the Indo-Pacific:
Background and Issues for Congress. August 30, 2022. .
Michael D. Swaine, Jessica J. Lee and Rachel Esplin Odell, Toward an Inclusive & Balanced Regional Order: A New U.S. Strategy in East Asia, Jan. 11, 2021. Quincy Paper. < https://quincyinst.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/A-New-U.S.-Strategy-in-East-Asia.pdf >.

3/15：中國崛起丶軍事現代化與亞太安全
Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2022, Annual Report to Congress (Arlington, VA: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2022) Cha. 2-3.
日本防衛研究所， 《中國安全戰略報告2021： 新時代的中國軍事戰略》， 東京：日本防衛研究所， 2021。 第1章 中國加緊準備信息化戰爭。
中國國務院新聞辦公室，《新時代的中國國防》，2019年7月。.

3/22：習近平上任後中共對外政策的轉變及美中戰略競爭
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2022 Annual Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Washington D. C.: Dec. 2022. Chapter 1: CCP Decision-Making and Xi Jinping’s Centralization of Authority, pp. 25-120.
Congressional Research Service report, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Background and Issues for Congress. Feb. 8 2023. < https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R42784.pdf >.
The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) . Strategic Annual Report 2022: The End of the “post-Cold War” Era and the Future of the US-led International Order. Chapter 3 Ongoing US-China Competition and the Situation in the Indo-Pacific. Pp. 29-46. < https://www.jiia.or.jp/en/strategic_comment/pdf/StrategicAnnualReport2022en.pdf >

3/29：北韓核武擴散危機與東北亞不擴散機制之運作與動搖
(1) 歷史經驗與現狀
(2) 各國的不擴散政策
(3) 北韓核武擴散危機與東北亞核武擴散骨牌效應的擔憂
United States Congressional Research Service, North Korea's Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs, CRS In Focus, January 23, 2023 United States Congressional Research Service. < https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/IF10472.pdf >.
The National Institute for Defense Studies , East Asian Strategic Review 2022, Chapter 4 :The Korean Peninsula: Missile Diversification in North and South Korea. < http://www.nids.mod.go.jp/english/publication/east-asian/e2022.html>.

4/12：日本正常國家化之發展與亞太安全丶釣魚台爭議
The National Institute for Defense Studies , East Asian Strategic Review 2019-2022, Cha. : “Japan,” Tokyo: The National Institute for Defense Studies, 2019-2022.

4/19： 美國「延伸嚇阻」安全承諾的可信度、飛彈防禦，及不擴散機制之間的關連：
---飛彈防禦與東亞安全: 飛彈防禦是否真能增進東北亞的安全與穩定?
---未來將如何發展，及影響亞太戰略格局與兩岸安全關係？嚇阻與防禦的兩難
Jaganath Sankaran, “Ballistic Missile Defense and Strategic Stability in East Asia,” Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 20 N. 3. May 2020. Pp. 485-508.
U.S. and Allied Ballistic Missile Defenses in the Asia-Pacific Region, January 2019, Arms Control, Fact Sheets & Briefs,

4/26：俄國角色與東亞安全；烏俄戰爭與亞太安全
Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, and Aleksandar Vladicic, Russia in the Asia-Pacific: Less Than Meets the Eye, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2020.
< https://carnegieendowment.org/files/SokolskyRumer_Asia-Pacific_FINAL.pdf>

5/3: 南海爭議與亞太安全
The National Institute for Defense Studies , East Asian Strategic Review 2019-2022, Chapter 4 or5: “Southeast Asia:” Tokyo: The National Institute for Defense Studies, 2019-2022.

5/10: 亞太多邊主義安全架構及印太結盟體系的可能出現並成功運作嗎？
(1) 「區域性集體安全體系」與「信心建立措施」:可行之途徑嗎？---東協區域論壇、亞太安全合作理事會……等之運作， 是成功的嗎?
(2) 各國之看法，及其對臺海、朝鮮半島之適用問題
(3) 目前朝核問題之「六邊會談」架構的未來可能發展：
-----能形成未來之「東北亞多邊安全架構」嗎？臺灣會被邊緣化嗎？
四方安全對話（The Quad）, AUKUS等之發展與印太結盟體系的展望
Felix Heiduk, Security in the Indo-Pacific: The Asianisation of the regional security architecture, SWP Research Paper 2022/RP 11, 2022. 11, 23 .
He, Kai & Hui-Yun Feng. 2020. “The Institutionalization of the Indo-Pacific: Problems and Prospects.” International Affairs 96(1): 149-168.
中國外交部，《全球安全倡議概念文件》。2023年2月21日。

5/17: 台海軍力平衡之改變與台灣安全，美、中、日、歐等國的政策
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2022 Annual Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review, Washington D. C.: Dec. 2022. Chapter 4: Taiwan, pp. 589-662. < https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2022-11/Chapter_4--Taiwan.pdf>
Mark F. Cancian , Matthew Cancian , and Eric Heginbotham. The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan. CSIS, January 9, 2023 < https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ >.

5/24: 臺灣的安全困境：臺灣該如何因應此快速變遷中的亞太安全局勢？
------核子與飛彈時代臺灣安全的兩難：防禦或嚇阻？
------防禦有用嗎？嚇阻有效嗎？美國可以依靠嗎？
------馬政府的「守勢防禦」有用嗎？
------弭兵論、反戰論、中立論與臺灣安全
Robert D. Blackwill and Philip Zelikow, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, Council Special Report No. 90, February 2021.
國防部，中華民國110年國防白皮書，（台北：國防部，2021）Cha. 3-4。< https://www.mnd.gov.tw/NewUpload/%E6%AD%B7%E5%B9%B4%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A%E6%9B%B8%E7%B6%B2%E9%A0%81%E5%B0%88%E5%8D%80/%E6%AD%B7%E5%B9%B4%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A%E6%9B%B8%E5%B0%88%E5%8D%80.files/%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A%E6%9B%B8-110/%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A%E6%9B%B8-110-%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%87.pdf >.
Shihmin Chen (2016, Jun). Taiwan’s Security Dilemma in the Face of a Shifting Cross-Strait Military Balance . The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 28(2), 299-315。

5/31: 期末論文報告

6/7: 期末論文報告